NFL Picks Week 3

Welcome back for another week of football and degenerate hijinks. 3–2, (+1.00) last week, 8–3 (+2.75) on the season. Let’s get into it.

Went with a couple trends last week. The 0–1 vs. 0–1 take the dog trend went 3–1 (thanks Texans, Colts, and Niners), apparently the trend does not apply to Bill Belichick and the Patriots who manhandled the Saints. The 75% hit rate was inline with the 73.3% since 2007, keep this one in your back pocket for Week 2 next year.

The Hard Knocks teams are bad ATS in their first game trend did not continue. The Bears went back to being the Bears and the Bucs rolled.

Enough about last week, on to the picks.

Betting with data just feels better and here’s a nugget I like for Week 3. In matchups between 0–2 and 2–0 teams, when the undefeated team is favored between 5–8 points, the 2–0 team is 4–1 (80%) since 2007. There are two such matchups this week, here’s to them both hitting.

1* Steelers (-7) vs BEARS

Big Ben struggles on the road, but the Bears struggle at football. At home, featuring the 27th ranked defense in DVOA and a Mike Glennon led offense, the Bears will struggle to score and stop Pittsburgh. Predicting a big game from Le’Veon Bell who finally gets on track this week.

2* PANTHERS (-5) vs Saints

It is time to believe the Saints, believe that they are not a good football team. Despite featuring Drew Brees and an “offensive guru” head coach in Sean Payton, if we’ve learned anything through two weeks it’s that their defense is still porous. The lone bright spot on defense this season has been Marshon Lattimore who so far rates out as one of Pro Football Focus’ best corners. The bad news is Marshon is out this week with a concussion.

Cam Newton and the Panthers explode on offense this week and easily cover the 5.

2* TITANS (-2.5) vs Seahawks

Opponents are 10–3 against the Seahawks in the central time zone during the Russell Wilson Era. The Tennessee Titans play their home games in the central time zone. I like Tennessee.

6.5 Teasers: lots of favorites with favorable matchups this week that are just begging to be thrown into a teaser. Any combination of Pats, Packers, Dolphins, Eagles, or Steelers is interesting, but I’m going with the two below:

1* Patriots (-7.5) / Packers (-0.5)

1* Dolphins (+1) / Eagles (+0.5)

So that’s 2* on the Titans and Panthers, and 1* on the Steelers, and Pats/Packers, Dolphins/Eagles teasers.

Disclaimer: this is just for FUN.

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